KittyTac wrote:Though last time I saw a natural LWSS in a 500x500 soup, it appeared 400 generations in!

Occasionally you do see two gliders hitting each other as a random soup evolves, but three coordinated gliders is rare enough that I'm not sure I've ever seen an example.

My intuition may be totally wrong on this, but I would be somewhat surprised if any of the 28 billion LWSSes that have showed up so far from 16x16 Catagolue soups, were generated by three colliding gliders in the classic clean recipe. There are just so many more likely ways for a soup to produce LWSSes. Gliders moving through the middle of stabilizing ash are pretty rare in the first place, and here you'd need three of them at once _and_ the LWSS would have to be lucky enough to have an escape route afterwards.

I suppose the question is at least somewhat within reach of a ballpark estimate. Could survey a lot of soups and see what the probability is, say in soups that last over 1000 ticks, that any given point in the pattern contains a glider in a specific orientation. The odds of a natural LWSS recipe should be on the order of the cube of that probability.

So... since it seems pretty clear that the odds are less than one in 3000 that a randomly-chosen spacetime location in stabilizing soup contains, say, a phase-0 SW-traveling glider... it looks like apgsearch very likely hasn't seen its first natural LWSS recipe yet.